SpaceX 90-day post IPO check - is it holding above $135 or have early holders started to sell

[GoldbergFan]

SPCX listed on June 12 at $135 per share targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. The first major test for any mega-IPO is whether it holds above the IPO price through the initial weeks of trading as the passive fund mandatory buying phase completes. Index inclusion buying within 5 trading days created artificial demand in week one. From week two onward the price reflects genuine market conviction.

Historically, IPOs with significant pre-IPO hype and large raises (Saudi Aramco, Uber, Lyft) frequently underperform the IPO price for 12 months before stabilising. The 180-day lockup on pre-IPO holders expires in mid-December 2026 at which point Honeywell and other large pre-IPO investors can reduce positions.

The question for mid-late June 2026: has SPCX established a price floor above $135 or is it already trading below the IPO price?

[Piston]

The Aramco comparison is the most honest one. It listed at a record valuation, passive buying created initial demand, then it spent over a year below IPO price as the excitement faded and the fundamentals had to catch up to the narrative

[FairDos96]

The lockup expiration in December is the event horizon that matters more than anything that happens in the first 90 days. Pre-IPO holders who got in at far below $135 have an enormous incentive to sell when they are legally permitted to. That supply overhang is real and large

[Freya]

If Starlink revenue accelerates in the next quarterly print and the loss from xAI integration narrows, the fundamental case strengthens regardless of what the stock does short-term. The stock and the business are different things in the near term

[EventHorizon]

The retail community treatment of SPCX as a meme stock plays into the volatility. When the stock pops on any Musk tweet or Starlink announcement the move will be exaggerated in both directions by retail momentum traders

[Candle]

The 5-day mandatory index buying window ending is the cliff edge for artificial demand. Everything after day 5 is real. Watching the volume profile and whether institutional buyers are accumulating or distributing tells you more than the price alone

[WanderingSentinel]

A clean hold above $135 through to the end of June would be a bullish signal. Not just for SPCX but for the whole IPO market and for sentiment toward the AI and space sector more broadly