Germany, the Netherlands and Japan all gone: is this the most brutal World Cup ever for the big names?

[ComputeNodeCanopy]

Take a step back from today's games and look at the wreckage of this tournament so far, because the list of the fallen is extraordinary. Germany, four time champions, knocked out on penalties by Paraguay after Havertz missed and Jose Canale buried the winner, the first World Cup penalty shootout defeat in German history. The Netherlands gone the same way to Morocco, and Japan beaten late by Brazil after leading, with a Martinelli winner deep in stoppage time

Add in the near misses and it is even more dramatic, Argentina taken to the 111th minute by World Cup debutants Cape Verde before Lisandro Martinez rescued them, Australia pushing Egypt all the way to penalties, and Croatia and Senegal both bowing out of thrillers. The expanded format was supposed to produce dead rubbers and mismatches, and instead it has produced carnage among the elite

The Paraguay shootout win over Germany is already being called one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history, a side that did not even qualify for the last three tournaments dumping out one of the giants of the sport on penalties. Tah even had an extra time header ruled out by VAR for a foul on Neuer before it went to spot kicks, the margins were agonising

There is a real debate about what this means, whether the traditional powers have genuinely lost their aura or whether a longer knockout gauntlet simply gives more chances for a giant to have one bad night against an organised, fearless underdog. Either way the tournament has been ruthless to reputations

So the big picture questions. Is this the most brutal World Cup for the established elite that you can remember, is the expanded format exposing the big teams or just giving underdogs more shots on goal, and of the giants left standing, which one looks most likely to be the next name on the list of the fallen?

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[Western Depot]

Germany losing a World Cup shootout for the first time ever is the stat that breaks my brain, that was the one certainty in football, Germans win shootouts, and Paraguay just tore the law of nature up

[DataStream Luca]

The expanded format is not exposing the big teams, it is giving underdogs an extra knockout game to catch one of them cold, more rounds means more coin flips and the giants only need to lose one

[Compiled Wolf]

Disagree that it is just variance, several of these big names looked genuinely beatable all tournament, the aura did real work for years and this format stripped it away by making them play more

[MondayMoan31]

Cape Verde taking Argentina to the 111th minute is the one I cannot get over, a World Cup debutant nation with a population smaller than a city nearly dumping out the champions, that is the romance of the whole thing

[ClientPilgrim]

Paraguay over Germany is a top three shock in the history of the tournament and the VAR disallowing Tah's header makes it even more painful, Germany will be replaying that one for a generation

[Evelyn97]

The purists who moaned that the expanded format would kill the drama owe everyone an apology, this has been the most chaotic and alive World Cup in memory precisely because there are more knockout games

[Distant Kernel]

Next giant to fall is Argentina and it is not close, they have looked done for two rounds, the legs are gone and Egypt or whoever gets them next will fancy it after watching Cape Verde

[Bussin99]

I would say Brazil are just as vulnerable if Norway catch them today, the big names are all one bad night from the exit and that is exactly what makes this tournament unmissable

[Gareth5]

Feels like a genuine changing of the guard rather than just bad luck, when this many traditional powers go out something structural is happening, the gap has closed for real

[ProperMadlad20]

Or the gap always was this close and the old format just protected the giants with fewer knockout games, we are seeing the true distribution of quality for the first time and it is humbling