Michael Saylor's quantum claims about Bitcoin fact-checked by PostQuantum

[Karen73]

PostQuantum has published a detailed fact check of comments made by Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, at the World Bank in Washington on 13 October. Marin Ivezic's piece tests 15 of Saylor's claims about quantum computing and Bitcoin. It is an analysis piece rather than straight news, but it is a useful look at an important debate

Saylor argued that no quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin exists yet, that Bitcoin could upgrade in about 90 days once a threat appears, and that acting now would be premature. Ivezic agrees with the first point, since no cryptographically relevant machine exists today

He disagrees with the 90 day figure. He cites a 2024 University of Kent estimate that moving around 187 million unspent outputs to new addresses would take at least 76 days of full block space, even before the community agrees on how to do it. Agreement on changes to Bitcoin has historically taken years rather than weeks

Ivezic also points to Google Quantum AI's estimate from March that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography in 18 to 23 minutes. He covers expert surveys, US government migration deadlines around 2030 and 2031, and the BIP-360 and BIP-361 proposals for quantum resistant upgrades to Bitcoin

The core argument is that migration takes far longer than the threat might give us warning. Whether you agree with Saylor or Ivezic, the debate is healthy, and it shows how seriously the crypto world is starting to take quantum risk. Clear facts help everyone make better decisions

Is 90 days a realistic upgrade window for Bitcoin? And when should the Bitcoin community start its post quantum migration?

Michael Saylorpostquantum.com