Premier League kicks off in a week, who is winning it this season

[Wandering Matt]

The new Premier League season kicks off next Friday with Arsenal hosting newly promoted Coventry City at the Emirates, and the whole division has had an unusually long close season this year because of the expanded World Cup pushing everything back. Arsenal go into the campaign as defending champions for the first time since 2004, and they finished last season seven points clear of City while conceding only 27 goals all campaign, which is a genuinely serious defensive platform to build a title defense on

What makes this season interesting is how much turnover there has been at the very top of the league away from Arsenal specifically. Several of the traditional big six clubs have brought in new managers over the summer, which creates a lot of uncertainty for anyone trying to predict where those sides will actually be come May, since new managers at this level usually need time to properly bed in their ideas even with strong squads already in place

Arsenal's main concern heading into the opener is reportedly a back injury to William Saliba picked up during the World Cup, which matters a lot given how central he has been to that stingy defense, so his fitness and recovery timeline is probably the single biggest swing factor for their title defense on paper

City obviously cannot be written off regardless of whatever changes they have made behind the scenes, their squad depth and tactical flexibility have kept them in almost every title race for the better part of a decade, and Liverpool, Villa and Tottenham all have enough talent and ambition to make things messy in the chasing pack if Arsenal stumble even slightly early on

My honest read is Arsenal go in as favorites purely because they are the only elite side that kept continuity at manager level through the summer, but a long injury to Saliba or a slow start against tougher fixtures could open the door fast given how unsettled everyone else looks right now

[Gaz_82]

Arsenal keeping Arteta while basically every other top club changed managers is honestly the biggest structural advantage in the league right now, continuity matters way more than people give it credit for at this level

[Inference Scott]

Never bet against City reloading no matter how much noise there is about them supposedly being in transition, Guardiola or whoever ends up leading that project always finds a way to be competitive by Christmas

[CMPunk88]

Chelsea rebuilding again feels like the same headline every single summer at this point, at some point continuity has to matter for them too instead of constant turnover

[FairDos96]

Aston Villa under Emery keeps getting mentioned as the dark horse pick every season and they keep almost delivering on it without quite getting there, curious if this is finally the year they break through properly

[CMPunk]

Hard to fully trust preseason predictions this year specifically given how many managerial changes there have been, half the league's tactical identity is basically an unknown until we actually see them play competitive matches

[CyberWarden]

Going with Arsenal to retain it just based on how boring and reliable their defensive record was last year, boring wins titles a lot more often than people want to admit

[Neuer31]

The Saliba injury is the one thing that worries me if I am an Arsenal fan, their whole identity last season was built around that defense being basically unbreakable and losing him for any real stretch changes the calculation completely

[Thomas]

Arsenal's fixture list early on with Coventry then Villa is actually pretty kind, if they can bank points before the traditionally tougher run in autumn that head start could matter a lot by spring

[Sandra_29]

The three promoted teams and expanded World Cup fatigue angle gets overlooked in most of these predictions, physical conditioning in August and September could quietly decide a lot more points than people expect

[NatureBoy86]

Feels like this could be one of those seasons where the eventual champion is not obvious until January once all the new manager teams either find their footing or completely fall apart

[HHH_Gold]

Liverpool ripping up their previous project after one flat season feels premature honestly, that squad still has serious quality even with some big departures, they should not be written off as dark horses