Is the league title race already decided by Christmas?

[Ria99]

Every year the pundits tell us the title race is alive until spring, and every year it feels mathematically alive but practically dead by late December. Once a gap hits eight or nine points with a squad that never rotates badly, the chasing pack needs a collapse rather than a comeback

I pulled up the past ten seasons in the leagues I follow and the team top at Christmas won far more often than not. The exceptions are memorable precisely because they are exceptions. We remember the great comebacks because they almost never happen

So is the winter break basically the finish line in disguise? Or am I falling for survivorship in reverse, only noticing the seasons that confirm my grumpiness?