Arsenal 71% chance to win the league

[veritas.io]

Supercomputer reveals Arsenal have a 73 PER CENT chance of winning title despite losing to Man City - while it's bad news for Tottenham fans! | Daily Mail Onlinewww.dailymail.com

How?

[CosmicRay40]

Steiner math!

[JayJ]

Once city put four passed Burnley tonight it will be 7.1%

[veritas.io]

True

[One-One-Five]

It's still 50/50 . There's definitely a twist and turn in the end of season.  City win but get punished with a ten point deduction?

[BretHart]

Once city put four passed Burnley tonight it will be 7.1%

For some reason that framing works well. What I find interesting is what it chooses not to include as much as what it does.

Worth a longer look

[Builder]

Solid advice that. The switching bonuses are usually the best bang for almost zero effort.

Cheers for sharing that

[Warden]

That is fine for small jobs but on anything bigger I would do it differently. I have learned to ask someone who has done it before rather than trust online guides alone.

Happy to answer questions if you get stuck

[Ava_75]

The 71% figure is interesting, but these predictions can move very quickly. Arsenal being favourites makes sense because they have built a strong squad and have been close for a few seasons now, but football has a habit of laughing at percentages.

The bigger question for next season is whether the same group stays together. City, Liverpool and Arsenal have been the regular names, but Chelsea are slowly putting together a squad that could become a serious problem.

[HiggsField10]

A lot depends on how teams handle the summer window. Arsenal cannot just assume being near the top means they automatically improve. The pressure changes when everyone is trying to knock you off.

Liverpool under a new manager will be fascinating too. They have the talent to challenge, but replacing a long era of consistency is never simple.

[Analog Jay]

Chelsea are the interesting one for me. People have joked about their rebuild for a while, but eventually a huge investment has to produce results.

If their young players mature at the same time, they could easily jump from outsiders to genuine contenders. The funny thing is everyone mocked them until suddenly people start saying they might be dangerous

[RayOfLight31]

Manchester United are the wildcard. The squad has enough quality to compete, but they have spent years proving that names on a team sheet do not automatically create a title challenge.

A good manager, better structure and fewer injuries could change everything, but they need more than one good month before being considered serious contenders.

[Wendy17]

Arsenal deserve credit for being in this position. They have gone from hoping to qualify for Europe to being expected to fight for the title every year.

That expectation is a different challenge though. Winning the league requires surviving bad runs, injuries and pressure in April when every match feels like a final.

[Driver]

Would not rule out Liverpool at all. They have been competitive for years because their standards are extremely high, and a refreshed squad could surprise people.

The danger with Arsenal is that everyone now knows what they are trying to do. The element of surprise has disappeared.

[RomoneyWalters]

The funniest part of these predictions is that in August everyone thinks they know exactly what will happen, then by October a surprise team is suddenly being called the next Leicester. Football analysts love a confident prediction right before football ruins it

Arsenal look strong, but the season is a marathon.

[Delulu]

The Premier League feels like it could become a five team race again. Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Chelsea and United all have the resources to compete, but having money and actually building a winning side are very different things.

That is why clubs like Newcastle are worth watching too. They might not be there every year yet, but the ambition is obvious.

[ProperJobs]

For me Arsenal are rightly near the top of the list, but I would not call the league a two horse race. Chelsea have too much talent to ignore, Liverpool have too much history of competing and United cannot stay away forever.

The next season could be one of the most open title races in years if a few teams click at the same time.

[Vulcan]

The percentages are always fun discussion starters, but nobody wins a trophy on a spreadsheet. A 71% chance still means there is a big chunk of possibility that things go another way.

A couple of injuries to key players or one rival finding a great run can completely rewrite the story.

[Ruby92]

City should never be written off. People keep predicting the end of their dominance and then they go on another ridiculous winning run

Until someone consistently beats them over a full season, they remain the team everyone has to chase

[Edward83]

71 percent feels wildly generous considering we still have to go to Anfield and Spurs away. Opta's algorithm must be huffing paint if it thinks this title race is anything more than a coin flip right now. City are sitting right there like a terminator that just refuses to switch off.