Why does quantum computing threaten encryption if qubits fail so much?

[RadekVítek]

Quantum computers are supposed to break encryption but I read quantum computers have super high error rates. How can they factor large numbers if they can't even keep qubits stable?

[Vacant Niamh]

Good question. There's a real gap between where quantum is now and what's needed for cryptographically relevant problems. Current quantum computers are prototype stage with high error rates

[EdgeLord]

Shor's algorithm for factoring only needs a few thousand logical qubits after error correction assuming fault-tolerant quantum computing. With current error rates you'd need millions of physical qubits. That's the gap

[Yasmin_63]

The threat is real for future timelines. NIST and governments are already preparing quantum-resistant encryption standards. The timeline uncertainty is why they're acting now

[Sharon_77]

Some researchers estimate cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive 10-20 years from now. Others say 30-50 years. Uncertainty is why defensive measures happen early

[HiddenSeb75]

The immediate threat isn't that quantum computers factor numbers today. It's harvest now decrypt later attacks. Adversaries record encrypted data today betting that quantum computers exist someday to decrypt it

[Joanne94]

That's why governments mandate migration to quantum-resistant encryption now. Protect current secrets against future quantum decryption

[Calm Paige]

The gap between prototype quantum and cryptographically-relevant quantum is about error correction scaling. As labs improve error correction the timeline accelerates

[CobyOlaleye]

Most experts think NISQ era quantum computers won't break encryption. Only fault-tolerant quantum computers with error rates below certain thresholds crack it

[StoneCold_Mike]

The practical timeline depends on breakthrough vs incremental progress. Incremental progress looks like 20+ years. Unexpected breakthrough could accelerate it

[Beth]

This is why quantum-safe cryptography is boring but important infrastructure work. Not flashy but existence depends on it working