When will Q-Day actually happen? Taking bets, winner gets a custom title

[Xavi]

Q-Day is the informal name the security and crypto community has landed on for the day a genuinely capable quantum computer becomes able to break the encryption protecting most of the internet, mainly by running Shor's algorithm against the elliptic curve and RSA cryptography that everything from banking to email currently relies on. Nobody actually knows when it happens, but plenty of serious institutions have taken a real swing at estimating it.

For reference on what the actual experts are saying, the Citi Institute has put the odds of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer existing at roughly 19 to 34 percent by 2034, climbing to 60 to 82 percent by 2044. Google has separately floated 2029 as an internal target for migrating its own systems away from vulnerable cryptography, and the US CNSSP-15 policy requires new national security systems to support post quantum algorithms starting in 2027, with full implementation targeted by 2035.

So here's the game, everyone posts their own genuine best guess for the actual date Q-Day happens, meaning the first credible, publicly confirmed instance of a quantum computer breaking real world encryption at practical key sizes. Post an actual specific date, not just a year, and feel free to explain your reasoning if you want to make a real case for it.

On format, dates rather than unix timestamps please, keeps this readable for everyone rather than turning into a wall of raw numbers, though if you want to throw a unix timestamp in parentheses afterward purely for fun, nobody's stopping you. Might be worth checking back on this thread periodically either way
Closest guess to the actual confirmed date wins a custom title on this board, and given how far out some of these guesses are probably going to be, this might end up being the longest running bet this forum has ever hosted

[BigDog_Fan]

March 14 2031, mostly because it's Pi Day and I like the idea of that specific irony if it actually lands anywhere close

[Highland Builder]

1853971200 is my guess

[Layla86]

Going with October 2029, right around Google's own internal migration target. Companies usually aim to be ready a bit ahead of the actual threat rather than exactly on time, so the real event probably lands close to when the most prepared players are already done migrating

[Totally]

April 2028, earlier than most people here are guessing. Given how fast Google's own qubit estimate for breaking encryption already dropped in a single research update, I think the compressed timeline keeps compressing further

[ReplyGuy26]

This is a fun bet to have running in the background for years, will be interesting to actually come back and check this thread whenever it eventually happens

[MayanHan]

January 1 2030 purely because a nice clean round date feels like exactly the kind of anticlimactic way this ends up actually getting confirmed

[John_62]

My money is on sometime in 2038, right in the middle of that Citi Institute range once the odds actually start climbing past fifty percent

[Nomad22]

June 2033 for me, splitting the difference between Google's aggressive internal target and the more conservative government mandated deadlines

[Rogue Di]

Betting further out than most people here, December 2045. Error correction has been the real bottleneck for years and I don't think that problem gets fully solved as fast as the optimists are currently hoping

[ReasoningCore14]

August 19 2036, no real science behind that pick, just going with my gut on this one