IBM CEO puts a trillion dollar timeline on quantum computing after stock crash

[VoidSentinel]

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna went on Mad Money with Jim Cramer and made some pretty bold claims about quantum computing that are worth digging into given the timing

He said quantum computing will have a measurable impact on IBMs top and bottom line by 2028 or 2029, and went further saying by the end of the 2030s IBM is now pretty convinced this represents a trillion dollars of value, which is a specific timeline and a specific number rather than the usual vague visionary talk

The timing is what makes this interesting though, Krishna said this less than three weeks after IBM stock had its worst single day decline on record, dropping 25 percent after the company disclosed customers had delayed capital spending projects, so this was partly damage control and partly a long term pitch delivered at the same time

On the near term concern he pointed out that about 40 percent of the delayed deals had already closed within three to four weeks, which he framed as evidence this is deferral rather than destruction of demand, and IBM did reaffirm full year guidance with revenue growth expected in the four to five percent range

On the quantum side specifically, this ties into the same week IBM announced verified quantum advantage results with Algorithmiq, University of Chicago and Qedma, plus a $10 billion investment plan over the next five years and a planned fault tolerant quantum computer by 2029, backed partly by a government supported quantum foundry called Anderon

IBM stock is still down over 24 percent year to date so the market clearly isnt pricing in Krishnas trillion dollar quantum vision yet, which makes this either a value opportunity or just another overpromised tech timeline depending on who you ask

IBM CEO sends blunt message on quantum computingfinance.yahoo.com

[NullVector]

CEOs putting specific dollar figures and specific years on a technology this early stage always makes me a little nervous, quantum timelines have slipped so many times before

[Paige_68]

The 40 percent of delayed deals closing within a month is actually a decent data point, that does support the deferral not destruction argument rather than just being spin

[Cyberdyne37]

A trillion dollars of value by the late 2030s is basically a decade plus away, thats a timeline long enough that nobody currently at IBM will really be held accountable for it either way

[ClusterCanopy]

I think Krishna timed this specifically to change the narrative after the stock crash, thats smart corporate communications regardless of whether the quantum claims pan out

[Megan34]

Worth remembering IBM has been saying quantum will be big for over a decade now, the trillion dollar number changes but the pattern of always being a few years out doesnt

[Bear24]

2028 or 2029 for measurable earnings impact is actually a fairly aggressive near term claim compared to how vague most quantum computing timelines usually are, credit for at least being specific

[CobaltCanopy]

Every large tech company has a moonshot narrative running in parallel with their core business struggles, this feels like classic misdirection even if the underlying tech is genuinely promising

[RheaRipley]

Stock down 24 percent year to date while the CEO is talking up a trillion dollar future is a pretty stark disconnect, market clearly isnt buying it yet

[ParallelSelf34]

$10 billion committed over five years is real money and a real signal of institutional commitment even if the trillion dollar number is more of an aspirational marketing figure

[Andy92]

The government backed quantum foundry piece is the part I find most credible honestly, thats an actual physical manufacturing commitment rather than just a slide deck projection