How far do you think we actually are from a useful fault tolerant quantum computer, honestly?

[Max_42]

Roadmaps from major companies keep naming dates in the early 2030s, and I want people's actual gut estimate given how many previous timelines in this field have already slipped

[Mila94]

My honest guess is closer to 2035 for the first useful fault tolerant system, error correction overhead keeps proving harder to reduce than the optimistic roadmaps suggest

[Sparrow]

Think it depends entirely on what useful means, narrow scientific applications like the recent IBM materials work already count as useful today without needing full fault tolerance at all

[Andy92]

I'd guess later than most public roadmaps claim, every major milestone in this field has taken longer than announced for the last two decades straight, no reason that pattern breaks now

[StevenArroyo]

Genuinely think we're already there for some specific problems and nowhere close for others, useful isn't a single finish line, it's a moving target across different problem types

[Thomas_69]

My honest estimate is within this decade for early fault tolerant demonstrations at small scale, useful in the commercial sense probably another five to ten years past that

[Pilot]

I'd bet on 2030 for a narrow but commercially valuable fault tolerant application, and considerably later for anything resembling general purpose quantum computing

[EliteShaun20]

Depends on whether a genuine algorithmic breakthrough happens that reduces the physical to logical qubit ratio, without that the current roadmaps are extrapolating from incremental hardware gains alone