Google vs IBM: whos actually closer to useful quantum advantage?

[Solo Buffer]

Google and IBM are both racing toward genuinely useful quantum advantage but taking noticeably different paths to get there. IBM's Nighthawk processor focuses on circuit complexity and connectivity within a superconducting architecture, backed by the largest installed quantum hardware base and the mature Qiskit software ecosystem. Google's Willow chip instead demonstrated below threshold error correction for the first time on real hardware, plus a specific benchmark claiming a massive speed advantage over classical supercomputers on one particular problem. Curious who people actually think is closer to something commercially meaningful rather than just an impressive lab demo

IBM's case rests heavily on ecosystem maturity and a clear stated roadmap toward practical quantum advantage by the end of this year for specific problem classes like chemistry simulation. Google's case rests more on the error correction breakthrough itself, since scaling error corrected qubits reliably is widely seen as the actual bottleneck standing between current hardware and anything genuinely useful. Feels like a real tension between IBM's breadth and Google's depth on one specific hard problem

Who do you think actually gets there first for a genuinely commercially useful application. Curious how people weigh ecosystem versus raw technical breakthrough here