Does quantum computing actually threaten to break modern encryption within our lifetimes?

[HighKey]

One of the most widely repeated claims about quantum computing is that a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could eventually break the encryption schemes that currently protect everything from online banking to government communications, largely thanks to Shor's algorithm, which could theoretically factor the large numbers underpinning widely used encryption methods far faster than any classical computer ever could manage. Governments and major tech companies have already begun rolling out post quantum cryptography standards specifically to get ahead of this risk before it actually materialises.

Skeptics point out that current quantum computers are still nowhere near the scale and error correction reliability needed to actually run Shor's algorithm against real world encryption key sizes, and that estimates for when a genuinely capable machine might exist have been repeatedly pushed back for years as the engineering challenges turn out to be harder than initially expected. Do you think this is a genuinely near term threat worth the current level of urgency, or an overhyped concern that keeps getting used to sell quantum research funding?