June jobs report lands soft: 57,000 payrolls, participation at a five year low

[TheGame_Fan]

The June US jobs report came in well under expectations yesterday, 57,000 nonfarm payrolls against forecasts around 115,000, with April and May revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2 percent, but for the uncomfortable reason that the labor force participation rate slumped to 61.5 percent, its lowest since March 2021

The detail that jumped out at me, leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs in a month when the World Cup is being hosted across US cities and Goldman had estimated the tournament could add 40,000. Half a million fewer people reported working in the household survey, which is a lot of people simply leaving the count

Markets read it as taking pressure off the Fed, with traders easing expectations of a rate hike as soon as September and yields dipping. Wages rose 3.5 percent on the year, which with inflation where it is means real pay is treading water at best

So how is everyone reading this, a labor market cooling gently into balance, or the early innings of something worse that the falling unemployment rate is politely disguising? And has anyone here actually felt it in their own industry yet?

U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%www.cnbc.com

[Megan95]

The participation drop is the whole story. Unemployment falling because 720,000 people stopped looking is not a stat to celebrate, it is a stat to investigate

[Ann]

Software here, hiring has been frozen solid since spring. The headline numbers always find out what our job boards knew six months earlier

[WWEReins19]

Healthcare slowing to 22,000 is the quiet alarm. That sector WAS the labor market for two years, if it stalls there is no cushion left

[Lewis_43]

Counterpoint from construction, we cannot hire fast enough and are paying over the odds. This economy is five different economies in a trenchcoat

[BiscuitTin]

The World Cup hospitality miss is genuinely strange. Either the tournament spending never materialised or it displaced normal tourism one for one

[Dom9]

Hotel revenue forecasts in host cities got slashed in half as it kicked off, so probably the latter. Locals stayed away exactly as much as visitors arrived

[Cobalt Pilgrim]

Talking about hikes rather than cuts in this environment still breaks my brain a little. Wage growth below inflation and the debate is whether policy is tight enough

[Outlaw92]

That is what sticky 4 percent inflation does, the Fed is boxed in from both sides and reports like this just extend the paralysis

[RayOfLight]

Practical question for the thread, does anyone change their own money behaviour on a report like this or is it all noise until it is your own payslip?

[CollapseState87]

Emergency fund got topped up this morning, so apparently I do. Six months of expenses felt paranoid last year and feels sensible now

[Evan0]

The revisions bother me more than the headline. If every strong month gets quietly cut later, the real time numbers are closer to vibes than data