Memory Prices Set to Surge 40 to 50 Percent in Q3 as AI Cloud Demand Locks Up Global DRAM Capacity

[Reacher Quarry]

Jefferies analysts warned this week that memory prices are set to surge between 40 and 50 percent in the third quarter of 2026, with a further 30 to 40 percent increase projected for the fourth quarter, as AI cloud infrastructure demand absorbs an increasing share of global DRAM manufacturing capacity. The analysts project no meaningful relief until 2028, a timeline reflecting both the lead time required to bring new memory fabrication capacity online and the sustained scale of AI infrastructure buildout currently underway across every major hyperscaler and AI lab.

The memory squeeze is a direct downstream consequence of the broader AI infrastructure capital expenditure wave defining 2026, including Alphabet's $84.75 billion equity raise, OpenAI's Jalapeño custom inference chip development with Broadcom, and the continuing buildout of dedicated AI data centre capacity by every major cloud provider. High-bandwidth memory specifically, the type of DRAM optimised for the data throughput requirements of AI accelerator chips, faces the most acute capacity constraints, since manufacturers including SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron have been prioritising allocation toward AI-specific memory products at the expense of conventional DRAM used in consumer electronics, servers outside the AI sector, and other established markets.

The practical consequence extends well beyond the AI industry itself. DRAM is a foundational component across essentially the entire electronics manufacturing sector, meaning a sustained 70 to 90 percent cumulative price increase across two quarters has implications for smartphone, laptop, automotive electronics and general server pricing that have nothing directly to do with AI infrastructure demand. Manufacturers across these adjacent industries now face the choice between absorbing higher input costs, passing them through to consumers, or in some cases, facing genuine component availability constraints if memory manufacturers continue prioritising AI-sector allocation over their historical customer base, a dynamic with echoes of the broader semiconductor supply chain disruptions experienced earlier in the decade.

Jefferies Warns Memory Prices Will Surge 40 50 Percent Q3 2026aiweekly.co

[MickFoley00]

A projected 70 to 90 percent cumulative price increase across two quarters with no relief until 2028 is the kind of supply chain disruption that has consequences far beyond the AI industry's own balance sheets. Anyone buying a laptop, smartphone or car with modern electronics in late 2026 is going to feel this regardless of their interest in AI