The four year cycle, real pattern or shared hallucination?

[Solo Buffer]

Everyone in crypto talks about the four year cycle like it is a law of physics. Halving happens, supply tightens, price runs, euphoria peaks, everything crashes, repeat. And to be fair, the historical chart does rhyme in a way that is hard to fully dismiss

But three or four repetitions is a tiny sample, and each cycle happened in a completely different world. Early cycles were retail curiosity, later ones had institutions and ETFs and macro conditions doing heavy lifting. The pattern might be real, or the halving might be a story we attach to price moves that had other causes

Where does everyone stand? And the practical question underneath it, does anyone actually position around the cycle, or is it just something we all narrate confidently after the fact? Not asking for financial advice, asking what people genuinely believe and why