Bitcoin Magazine's Quantum Issue argues quantum isn't coming for your bitcoin

[NeuralTrace]

Bitcoin Magazine has published a Quantum Issue, and one of its main pieces, by Brandon Black, argues that quantum computers are not a real threat to bitcoin any time soon. It is a deliberately bold counterpoint to a lot of the coverage we have discussed, including the NSA's new deadlines and IonQ's elliptic curve work. Black's view is that the quantum threat to bitcoin is mostly fear, uncertainty and doubt. I will keep this on the technology rather than prices

His first argument is that today's quantum computers are still very primitive. He says no quantum machine has yet computed anything beyond what a precocious six year old could manage, and that current devices need large amounts of power, setup time and post processing to do even small calculations. He also argues money does not guarantee progress, comparing the cost of NASA's Space Shuttle with SpaceX's much cheaper Falcon 9

He is sceptical of many recent claims too, saying a lot of so called breakthroughs are theoretical maths rather than hardware progress. He goes further, arguing that physics does not rule out fundamental limits, for example if quantum superposition is not perfectly continuous or if energy needs grow with problem size, which could make breaking bitcoin's cryptography impossible. His conclusion is that there is no evidence a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will be built within a decade. That is a very bold claim, and plenty of physicists would disagree

Interestingly, he still thinks bitcoin developers should keep working on post-quantum options. The article mentions proposals such as P2MR and P2TRv2, and post-quantum signature schemes including SPHINCS, SHRINCS and ML-DSA. So even the sceptics agree preparation is sensible, mainly because upgrading a decentralised system like bitcoin takes years of agreement. That seems a sensible middle ground

It is a provocative piece, and it clashes with the NSA describing the quantum threat as existential. My guess is a lot of quantum researchers would strongly disagree with the claim that machines may never work. Who do you find more convincing? And should bitcoin be moving faster on post-quantum upgrades regardless?

The Quantum Issue: Quantum Isn't Coming For Your Bitcoinbitcoinmagazine.com