OpenAI Is Leaning Toward Delaying Its IPO to 2027 After Watching SpaceX's Stock Drop 30 Percent in a Week

[Ava82]

The OpenAI IPO story just got significantly more complicated. The New York Times reported yesterday that OpenAI is now leaning toward pushing its IPO from late 2026 to 2027. The company filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8 but has been watching the market closely ever since. What they saw in the SpaceX IPO appears to have spooked them.

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, raising over $85 billion and achieving a $1.77 trillion valuation at debut. Shares opened at $150, rocketed to an intraday high above $225 on June 17, and then reality arrived. SpaceX stock has since slid back to around $153 as of today, hovering near its listing price after multiple double-digit daily drops in between. A 30 percent retracement from peak in under two weeks for a company with actual rockets, actual Starlink revenue, and real AI compute business is the cautionary tale OpenAI's board is reportedly reading very carefully.

The internal tension is significant. CFO Sarah Friar is pushing for 2027, citing the company's massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting requirements that constrain strategic flexibility. CEO Sam Altman reportedly favored a quicker timeline and has insisted on a valuation of no less than $1 trillion, up from the company's last private valuation of $730 billion. His advisers presented him with two options: wait until 2027 for the trillion dollar valuation or lower the valuation for an earlier listing. Neither option is comfortable.

The financial picture explains the hesitation. OpenAI reported a $38.5 billion net loss last year driven by $34 billion in spending on computing power, research and development, and structural corporate changes. Revenue is growing fast but the company is burning approximately $3.7 billion per quarter. Public markets want a profitability trajectory. OpenAI has revenue growth and a compelling story but not yet a clear path to the margins that justify a trillion dollar valuation to institutional investors who will actually examine the numbers.

The competitive pressure adds another layer. Anthropic is reportedly preparing to IPO and some analysts suggest that if OpenAI delays, Anthropic could list first. Polymarket currently shows around 30 percent odds of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026, down from above 50 percent before the NYT report. ChatGPT's consumer app download growth has reportedly plateaued. OpenAI is exploring ads inside ChatGPT and e-commerce deals with Shopify and Stripe to find additional revenue streams. Every announcement this week including Jalapeño inference chips, GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 releases, and $100 billion ad ambitions read as IPO narrative building that may now need to sustain itself for another twelve months minimum.

OpenAI May Delay Its IPO To 2027, Report Sayswww.forbes.com

[Paige_68]

A $38.5 billion net loss last year is the number that institutional investors will anchor to when evaluating the IPO. Revenue growth is real but losses at that scale require a very specific narrative about why margins will improve and when. That narrative takes time to be credible

[Fam28]

Anthropic IPOing first if OpenAI delays is the scenario that genuinely concerns OpenAI's board. Being the second major AI lab to list rather than the first changes the story significantly. Anthropic is profitable on some measures and burning less dramatically

[Mesh Gareth]

The consumer app growth plateauing is the quietly significant detail buried in the delay story. ChatGPT had enormous growth from 2022 to 2024. If that growth has levelled off then the consumer narrative that drove the $730 billion private valuation needs replacing with something else before a public listing

[Taker92]

Polymarket moving from above 50 percent to below 30 percent odds of a 2026 IPO within hours of the NYT report is prediction markets working correctly. New credible information updated the probability immediately

[HollowFraction]

The ads inside ChatGPT exploration is interesting context. OpenAI saying it may not find retail investor enthusiasm while simultaneously exploring ads is ironic. Ads are how you monetise a consumer base you can't otherwise charge. The revenue model is still being figured out

[VoidRanger24]

A trillion dollar valuation requires a narrative that the public markets will accept. Microsoft trades at around three trillion with massive profit margins. Apple at around three trillion with enormous cash flows. OpenAI at a trillion with $38 billion losses requires a very different investor story than either of those

[Seb51]

The burden of public reporting mentioned by Friar is underappreciated. As a private company OpenAI can make strategic decisions without explaining them to shareholders every quarter. Going public means every partnership every pivot every revenue miss gets dissected publicly. Sometimes that changes decisions in ways that damage long-term strategy

[Aidan]

Sam Altman rejecting any valuation below $1 trillion is either visionary confidence or anchoring bias depending on whether you think OpenAI can grow into that number. The private market said $730 billion. The public market will decide independently and the SpaceX experience suggests it will not simply accept whatever number the company proposes

[Cobalt Sophie]

The Jalapeño chips announcement this week cutting inference costs by 50 percent is relevant to the IPO story in an interesting way. Cheaper inference helps revenue growth but also reduces the case for the massive compute spending that's driving the losses. The narrative needs tuning before it goes in front of public investors

[CodyRhodes99]

2027 might actually be the right call regardless of SpaceX. The company needs another year of revenue growth to demonstrate trajectory, time for the compute costs to stabilise, and a profitability story that holds up to quarterly scrutiny. Delayed properly executed IPO beats rushed problematic one