OpenAI Is Leaning Toward Delaying Its IPO to 2027 After Watching SpaceX's Stock Drop 30 Percent in a Week

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The OpenAI IPO story just got significantly more complicated. The New York Times reported yesterday that OpenAI is now leaning toward pushing its IPO from late 2026 to 2027. The company filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8 but has been watching the market closely ever since. What they saw in the SpaceX IPO appears to have spooked them.

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, raising over $85 billion and achieving a $1.77 trillion valuation at debut. Shares opened at $150, rocketed to an intraday high above $225 on June 17, and then reality arrived. SpaceX stock has since slid back to around $153 as of today, hovering near its listing price after multiple double-digit daily drops in between. A 30 percent retracement from peak in under two weeks for a company with actual rockets, actual Starlink revenue, and real AI compute business is the cautionary tale OpenAI's board is reportedly reading very carefully.

The internal tension is significant. CFO Sarah Friar is pushing for 2027, citing the company's massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting requirements that constrain strategic flexibility. CEO Sam Altman reportedly favored a quicker timeline and has insisted on a valuation of no less than $1 trillion, up from the company's last private valuation of $730 billion. His advisers presented him with two options: wait until 2027 for the trillion dollar valuation or lower the valuation for an earlier listing. Neither option is comfortable.

The financial picture explains the hesitation. OpenAI reported a $38.5 billion net loss last year driven by $34 billion in spending on computing power, research and development, and structural corporate changes. Revenue is growing fast but the company is burning approximately $3.7 billion per quarter. Public markets want a profitability trajectory. OpenAI has revenue growth and a compelling story but not yet a clear path to the margins that justify a trillion dollar valuation to institutional investors who will actually examine the numbers.

The competitive pressure adds another layer. Anthropic is reportedly preparing to IPO and some analysts suggest that if OpenAI delays, Anthropic could list first. Polymarket currently shows around 30 percent odds of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026, down from above 50 percent before the NYT report. ChatGPT's consumer app download growth has reportedly plateaued. OpenAI is exploring ads inside ChatGPT and e-commerce deals with Shopify and Stripe to find additional revenue streams. Every announcement this week including Jalapeño inference chips, GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 releases, and $100 billion ad ambitions read as IPO narrative building that may now need to sustain itself for another twelve months minimum.

OpenAI May Delay Its IPO To 2027, Report Sayswww.forbes.com